Perfect Storm Brewing For Consumer Electronics?
By William S. Herz
Technology and Consumer Electronics Editor-at-Large
The phrase perfect storm refers to the simultaneous occurrence of events which, taken individually, would be far less powerful than the result of their chance combination. From a Consumer Electronics perspective, we could very well be living through a perfect storm. To set the baseline, consider Moore’s Law. In the high tech vernacular, it is very common to benchmark technology growth metrics through Moore’s Law. “Moore's Law was the empirical observation made in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 months.”[1] Today, Moore’s Law is a frequently cited reference pertaining to all technologies. Among many examples, it is used to imply that bandwidth, processing power, storage, etc. double in capability every 18 months. There was a time where this seemed aggressive; meaning the notion of technology doubling every 18 months seemed to be somewhat of a hyperbole.
In isolation, a technology could very realistically grow at a rate of double every 18 months. However, group this evolution with other technological synergies, while driving towards a solution or product and the results are extraordinary. As an example, consider video delivery over broadband (internet), where there are 3 main aspects: bandwidth, compression, and display processing. If bandwidth to the home doubled from 3 Megabits/Second to 6 Megabits/Second, if compression doubled in efficiency from 4 Megabits/Second to 2 Megabits/Second with no loss of quality, if video processing at the display could make a 320x240 image look as good as a 640x480 image (actually quadrupling the number of pixels), then this solution would have introduced 8 times the performance when compared to no improvement.
This extraordinary result is just one example of the convergence of 3 seemingly independent disruptive technologies forcing accelerated changes in economics, communications and culture. In order to achieve this scenario, consider the typical product development oppositional dilemma of cost, schedule, and features. In this example, the result is already known: a fixed budget, within 18 months, with an 8 times improvement of performance. How is this possible?
As with the perfect storm found in nature, the extraordinary result of 8x performance increase didn’t come without a high price. Some of the fallout in the pursuit of this 8x performance includes speed of light commoditization, outsourcing to cheap labor talent while importing expensive intelligence, global standardization while maintaining proprietary innovation, innovating while hastening minimum requirements, and exacting manufacturing at the lowest cost and fastest schedule, to name a few.
It’s interesting to see the interdependencies, while at the same time it’s even more fascinating to see the multiplicative effect of combining these technologies, such as in this scenario.
Broadband
Broadband speed is very much a function of infrastructure. Not withstanding politics, infrastructure relies on the hierarchy of system integration, system development, component development, software development, manufacturing, and the entire customer facing side of the business.
Compression
Compression techniques leverage better compression algorithms. The better algorithms are cost effectively made possible by the processing power in the chip that lets the algorithm run efficiently. As the algorithms mature to standards, their instantiation quickly becomes a commodity.
Display Processing
Display Processing is also greatly dependent on the processing power in the chip, but also introduces dependencies on the visual artifacts inherent in the compression algorithms, as well as display type, such as CRT, LCD, etc.
This was just one example. Imagine the rate of technical evolution as technologies build on each other contributing to techniques which accelerate developmental progress, which in turn contribute to even faster product performance deployment. One would think this is technology’s golden age, as the consumer benefit grows almost exponentially. Competition drives the price down with rich features, to the consumer’s benefit. The flipside is at what consequence to the industry. It is ironic that present day technology development is accelerating, while many of the companies that provide the technology suffer through margin erosion and ultimately assimilation into the larger companies. A trend for survival is arising, the ability to innovate business. This however may take a little more that 18 months to double the performance.
In today’s high tech changing world, there is no shortage of topics to explore. In the Consumer Electronics (CE) world, we are living in a most dynamic time.
In the coming issues, this column will present what’s new and cool in Consumer Electronics.
William S. "Bill" Herz has worked in Silicon Valley for over 20 years in video and consumer electronics with varying responsibilities including engineering, product development, technology innovation, and strategy and business development. Bill has 26 patents issued with over 50 pending. He has served in various executive capacities at video and consumer electronics companies including CTO, Vice President of Technology and Strategy, Vice President of Engineering, Sr. Director of Consumer Product Development and Director of Advanced Television Development.
Bill started his career as an electrical engineer and has designed boards, chips, and systems. Bill is the inventor of the Personal Spectrum Recorder, or Multichannel Personal Radio Recorder. Among his many achievements, he has lead, or been part of product development teams, which developed many of the world's firsts including: an HDTV film scanner, a professional digital video tape recorder, a solid state (tapeless) professional video editing console, and a consumer digital video recorder, MP-3 player, DVD player and photo viewer combo.
As an executive, Bill has been involved in intellectual property acquisitions, company acquisitions, and setting strategic directions for CE and video initiatives.
Bill has been a member of the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers for over 20 years. He is a member of IEEE. He has been certified by Imaging Science Foundation as a television calibrator. He has been granted degrees in Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications Management. With a genuine passion for technology and innovation, he has been spending most of his disposable income (for as long as he's had disposable income) on CE and new technology products.